SOC Futures Title

Three cross-cutting drivers will shape the impact of SOC over the next five years: conflict and economic tensions; technology; and trust in information and institutions. 

Conflict, Insecurity, and Economic Tensions

Global instability is increasing. In 2024, the number of state-based conflicts reached 61, the highest level since 1946, and new conflicts emerged across multiple regions in 2025. Conflict and insecurity are destabilising regions and nations, weakening the rule of law, and creating permissive operating environments for SOC. Conflict also drives migration increasing the number of people organised crime groups can engage with and exploit. 

Rising insecurity is driving increased global military expenditure which reached $2.7 trillion in 2024. The United Nations assesses that increased global military expenditure is likely to divert funds from social programmes. It is highly likely that in some countries this increased spending will divert resources away from policing and SOC prevention. In low-income and fragile states, it is highly likely that increased military spending will replace investment in education, health, and infrastructure, entrenching poverty and inequality and widening the pool of individuals vulnerable to involvement in SOC. 

Global tariffs rose sharply in 2025. Once the effects of tariffs are felt through higher prices and disrupted supply chains, it is likely SOC groups will exploit opportunities to undercut legitimate markets. Higher prices will also expand profit margins for manufacturers and distributors of counterfeit goods, strengthening illicit trade.

Technology

Technology will continue to play a transformative role in SOC over the next five years. It is almost certain that offenders will favour technologies that reduce the perceived risk of detection, increase profitability, lower barriers to offending, and enable offending across jurisdictions. It is highly likely that crime-as-a-service providers will increasingly allow low-skilled offenders to leverage advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, as well as magnifying the threat from technologies such as drones and applied chemistry for the manufacture and concealment of drugs.

The Threat from Artifical Intelligence-Enabled SOC Offending

While artificial intelligence will likely provide significant capabilities to law enforcement over the next five years, it will also be used increasingly for SOC to make offending easier and more profitable:

  • Large language models and sophisticated deepfakes will enhance victim engagement techniques for child sexual abuse, fraud, and modern slavery and human trafficking offences. 
  • Artificial intelligence-powered translation tools will allow non-English-speaking offenders to target UK victims more plausibly. 
  • Artificial intelligence is identifying software vulnerabilities at greater pace and will enable the automation of elements of cyber attacks, and the targeting of child sexual abuse, fraud, and modern slavery and human trafficking victims at scale.
  • Generative artificial intelligence will increasingly be used to create child sexual abuse material. 

It is likely that legitimate and SOC-generated companion apps will create opportunities for SOC offenders engaged in extortion and romance fraud. In a 2025 UK survey, 36% of respondents had used an artificial intelligence companion at least once, 23% were interested in doing so, and 25% believed such apps could replace human relationships. It is likely SOC groups will develop their own artificial intelligence companion apps designed to manipulate users into sharing sensitive personal data, enabling future extortion. It is likely that legitimate companion apps pose risks, as they collect and store highly personal information that is often poorly secured, leaving users vulnerable to extortion by SOC. In August 2025, 117 misconfigured artificial intelligence chatbots were identified that were exposing explicit user fantasies.

It is likely that SOC use of drones will diversify over the next five years and will be increasingly enabled by specialist drone builders and operators. SOC offenders most commonly use drones to convey contraband into prisons and, to a lesser degree, to locate cannabis cultivations (using thermal imaging) for burglary, and to conduct counter surveillance from law enforcement or rival groups. 

It is highly likely that in the next five years organised crime groups will seek opportunities to import illegal commodities into the UK using marine and aerial drones. In July 2025, the Colombian Navy intercepted a self-propelled semi-submersible vessel capable of carrying 1.5 tonnes of cocaine, which was fitted with a satellite antenna enabling it to be remotely operated. In November 2024, Spanish police dismantled an organised crime group using fixed-wing drones to transport drugs from Morocco to Spain. 

The Threat from Old Technology

It is not just new technologies that provide opportunities to SOC. It is almost certain that the persistence of obsolete and unsupported technologies will provide opportunities for SOC to exploit over the next five years and it is likely that as technological change accelerates, the number of legacy systems with unpatched vulnerabilities will grow. 

When free security updates for Windows 10 ended in October 2025, 31% of Windows users were still operating on this version. An estimated 25% of users did not intend to upgrade, leaving approximately 5 million devices vulnerable to emerging cyber threats.

Trust in Information and Institutions

It is highly likely that trust in information and institutions will decline between 2026 and 2031. It is highly likely that exposure to mis- and disinformation will increase, driven by shifting patterns of news consumption away from traditional news providers such as television and print towards less moderated channels such as social media, the increased use of generative artificial intelligence to create synthetic media, and the increasing amplification of false narratives by malicious actors. 

It is highly likely that SOC offenders will exploit less moderated online spaces and synthetic media to market illicit goods, target child sexual abuse, fraud and modern slavery and human trafficking victims, and advertise services including people smuggling. 

It is highly likely that trust in the criminal justice system will be reduced by the proliferation of deepfake media and the degrading effect it has on trust. While deepfake media detection capabilities are improving, it is almost certain they will at times lag behind improvements to generative artificial intelligence models. It is likely that SOC offenders will attempt to undermine the integrity of criminal trials by introducing deepfakes that provide false alibis or depict judges, jurors, or witnesses in ways that undermine their credibility or impartiality. It is also likely that as media generated by artificial intelligence becomes more realistic and commonplace in daily life, genuine video evidence such as CCTV footage will carry less weight with juries, potentially leading to acquittals where other sufficient corroborating evidence is lacking.